talkdcsports-kzeim

As of April 6/7 8 (we started this article Monday before the game and have been updating it – thus the strike-out of the dates), Nationals starters (including Zack Littell who had an opener for 1 inning) only one Nationals starter has recorded an out after the 5th inning. That was Cade Cavalli who pitched 6 innings against the Phillies and was replaced before the bottom of the 7th with a 2-0 lead. And, of course, the bullpen blew up as it has several other times so far this year.

You have to wonder if the time is right for the Nationals to consider some form of tandem or stacked starters. Tandem starters was discussed in The Evolution of Pitcher Roles and assumed10 starters with two starters per game with the second starter entering the game when the first starter was pulled and the bullpen used if the two tandem starters did not go 9 innings. In Too Many Candidate Starters? How About Stacking Them?. we looked at 7 starters that we referred to as stacked. One of them started the game and if he did not complete 5 innings the next starter along with the bullpen was used for the rest of the game. We used the Nationals 2026 schedule in 1000 iteration so we could include a realistic approach to assessing the impact of a starter only being used every 5 days.

Since these articles were published, the Nationals signed two FA starters. Both variants of the simulations discussed in those articles strongly suggested that neither tandem nor stached starters would not overwork the bullpen. In fact, both simulation studies suggested the exact opposite.

Let’s discuss!

Don: As long as Miles Mikolas is on the team, he should never see a batter for the third time in any game. I pair him with Andrew Alvarez and take advantage of a right/lefty set of guys who can hopefully go 8, if not 9 innings between them,

Cade Cavalli, Foster Griffin, and Zack Littell likely need not be paired with someone as of now. Time will tell on Jake Irvin.

Steve: The pitchers certainly have to be more efficient. They have to execute and they aren’t doing it enougb . The Nats have been using Brad Lord and Ken Waldichuk in long relief. For Mikolas, he really looks like a 2-inning guy. Maybe he should be a reliever?

Andrew: Today felt like a tandem start. You got Mikolas and Brad Lord to combine for 6.0 innings and 3 runs. Not a good time for the offense to only score 1 run.

Don: My comment above was made before the Cardinals series started. After the Tuesday game where the bullpen blew another lead for a total of 3 blown saves in which the BP inherited two 3 runs leads and one 5 run lead, The second article listed above did a simulation of 7 stached starters. Based on what we’ve seen so far, maybe it is time to repeat that simulation but with 8 candidate starters.

In my opinion, stacking starters is basically just treating all of them as what used to be called long relievers. Baseball has changed and it’s time teams adapted to the new pithcing/hitting catabilities.

Update after Mikolas 3 innings: If Mikolas can’t cover more than 3 innings before having to face the top of the lineup in the 4th, he shouldn’t even be an option in tandem/stacked starters.

Steve: He looks like a hybrid reliever to face a lineup after a lefty starting pitcher with the hopes that he faces a heavy does of righty batters.

Andrew: Paul Toboni has options. I thought Blake Butera did a poor job of matching up relievers.

Don: This table is the result of the 8 stacked starters simulation that was 1000 simulations of the Nationals 2026 schedule. I used an actual schedule because it is important to factor in the fact that starters need 5 days between starts/pitching. A few points are worth highlighting about these results.

• In 1000 simulated seasons we never had more than 5 games where no starters with 5 days of rest were available. And in 90% of them, never more than two games. That is very manageable.
• Never had an example with no backup starter for the first starter.
• Almost half the games involved no bullpen pitchers (and based on the limited results so far this year that is a very good thing).
• The three day moving average of total BP innings rarely exceeds 12 total innings. With 5 relievers, that is very manageaable.
• All 8 tandem starters had roughly the same number of innings. All very reasonable numbers
• The number of bullpen innings was also manageable given 5 relievers, plus guys who could be called up from the minors. Half of the time it is about 52 innings per reliever; the worst case is about 64 innings per reliever.

So who are the 8 tandem guys? I might give Mikolas a bit more rope and move Lord to be a stacked starter. And add Alvarez and Parker as my other two. Obviously, YMMV.

Steve: The game is changing and trending towards 5⅓ inning starts. Having hybrid relievers in tandem who can go 1⅔ to 2⅔ innings gets you to your setup relievers and closer. So why not use this concept with 5 relievers who can give you multiple innings in tandem?

Andrew: Waldichuk, Lord and Mitchell Parker can do that for you. That’s 3 relievers and need to find 2 more.

Don: So the issue is IMO how do you order the stacked guys. Do you try to play righty/lefty; or based on how many innings you can expect from them; or countably infinity other stratigies.

Clearly stacked starters, given who is available, has to be better than what we have seen so far.

Steve: Yes, ultimately you want to matchup up a lefty/righty to take advantage for the 2nd tandem pitcher to take advantage of a lineup with platoon players in there. I really felt like today was the first of a pre-planned tandem start although you really want more than 6.0 combined innings.

Andrew: It would have been a good discussion for a media person to delve into this concept. I almost feel like Alvarez as a lefty with the righty Mikolas would work. Another could be Cavalli with Parker.

Don: Hopefully whoever monitors the blogs gives a heads up to Toboni/Butera et al. I like both of your suggestions for a composite of tandem and stacked starters.

The point is that these simulations have shown than either stacked or tandem starters are viable options. There is more work needed to fine tune this. Wny not now?